174
FXUS65 KVEF 142153
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
253 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Breezy north in the Colorado River Valley on Sunday and Monday
  will make for choppy waves on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu.

* A significant warming trend will continue into next week with
  long-stranding March heat records likely to be broken across
  much of the Western US by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Skies are gradually clearing from west to east this afternoon as
the shortwave responsible for widespread high cloud cover this
morning pushes into the Central Rockies. This shortwave is
dragging a cold front southward through the Great Basin, and is
currently roughly along a line from Ely to Beatty and tracking
southward. This wind shift will reach the Las Vegas Valley by late
afternoon and spread south through the Colorado River Valley
overnight. On Sunday, these north winds will become focused along
the Colorado River Valley and persist into Monday - so beware of
locally choppy conditions and elevated lake winds if you have
plans on the water. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the
period.

Behind the front, temperatures Sunday will "cool" a few degrees
from their peaks today, but will still remain solidly in 8-12
degrees above normal territory. Then, starting Monday, the real
warming trend begins as an intense high pressure ridge begins to
build along the West Coast and spreads inland into the Southwest by
late in the week. Off-the-chart height anomalies are expected
Wednesday - Saturday, with heights peaking Thursday and Friday in
the 593-596 range across the Mojave Desert. This will translate to
high temperatures not seen in the modern record for March, peaking
into the 90s & 100s across the lower elevations of the Mojave
Desert, and well into the 80s and 90s across more moderate
elevations of the Great Basin and Owens Valley. To further put the
extremity of of this heat into perspective, the all-time record
March high temperature in Las Vegas is 93 degrees, and every day
Wednesday through Saturday is expected to be at least that warm,
if not several degrees warmer.

Needless to say, increasing HeatRisk will accompany these
temperatures with widespread Minor HeatRisk (Level 1 of 4) across
the area early next week and widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2
of 4) across the lower elevations and valleys of the Mojave
Desert during the second half of the week. Heat sensitive
individuals, people traveling to the Southwest from cooler
climates, and those without access to adequate hydration and
cooling will be the most at risk for adverse heat related impacts
and should take preventative measures to minimize their chances of
being negatively impacted by the heat. Some examples of
preventative measures include, but are not limited to: wearing
loose, light colored clothing, wearing sunscreen, and taking extra
care to remain hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds this afternoon will veer to the
northwest this evening, increasing to around 10KT, eventually
shifting to the northeast overnight as a front moves through the
area. Northeasterly winds (020-040 true) will increase to 10-12KT
sustained by mid morning Sunday, with intermittent gusts to around
18-20KT expected during the afternoon. Gusts are expected to
diminish prior to sunset as wind speeds drop to around 6-8KT,
though remaining northeasterly through the end of the period. VFR
conditions will continue, with FEW-SCT high clouds with bases
around 25kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty northwesterly
winds in the northern Owens Valley this evening will see a brief
lull overnight, with northerly winds gusting to around 25KT
expected to return by mid morning Sunday. These northwesterly
winds gradually overspread the area through tonight, with
northwesterly gusts to 20-25KT expected to persist at KVGT in the
northern Las Vegas Valley until late in the period. Winds will
veer from the northwest to northeast elsewhere, with winds ramping
up through the morning to around 10-15KT with intermittent gusts
to 20-25KT expected Sunday afternoon. An exception will be across
the western Mojave, including KDAG, where gusty westerly winds
continue through this evening before diminishing and becoming
variable overnight, shifting to the northeast Sunday afternoon.
Additionally, KIFP and KEED in the Lower Colorado River Valley
will see winds around 5-10KT through late evening ahead of the
northerly wind shift, which will produce terrain-enhanced gusts to
25-35KT from Sunday morning onward. VFR conditions prevail with
FEW-SCT clouds with bases above 15kft through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           SAT, MAR 14  SUN, MAR 15  MON, MAR 16  TUE, MAR 17
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     89(2007)*    88(2017)     89(2007)     91(2007)*
Bishop        84(2007)*    82(2007)     84(2007)*    84(2007)*
Needles       96(2017)*    95(2007)     98(2007)     99(2007)*
Daggett       92(2007)     93(2013)     93(2007)     92(2007)*
Kingman       86(2013)     87(2007)     90(1934)     89(2007)*
Desert Rock   84(2017)*    85(2013)     86(2007)*    87(2007)*
Death Valley  98(2007)*    99(2007)     99(2007)*    102(2007)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      SAT, MAR 14  SUN, MAR 15  MON, MAR 16  TUE, MAR 17
              Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     64(2003)     61(2017)*    64(2011)     64(1994)*
Bishop        46(2020)     46(2004)     42(1976)*    46(2015)*
Needles       65(1926)     63(1972)     69(2007)     64(1901)*
Daggett       57(2007)*    60(2013)     58(2013)*    60(1974)*
Kingman       53(1926)*    53(1947)*    55(2013)     50(1947)*
Desert Rock   57(2003)*    54(2007)*    61(1997)     58(1993)*
Death Valley  66(2023)*    71(2003)     72(1972)     72(2013)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office