547
FXUS65 KVEF 160504
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1004 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat gradually builds through mid-week as moisture gets squeezed
  into our southern areas.

* Temperatures return to seasonable values and southwest breezes
  increase during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the weekend.

Subtle 500mb height rises and decreasing moisture will reduce
convective coverage today. This morning`s 12z sounding showed a PWAT
decrease of ~0.25", supporting model depictions of the better
moisture retreating southward. Expecting isolated to widely
scattered convection in areas south/southeast of Las Vegas today.
Main concern will be lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph.
On Tuesday, any shower/storm activity should be confined to areas
south of I-40. Elsewhere, dry and warming conditions prevail through
Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to run 6-10 degrees above
normal as they peak Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to
major HeatRisk. We`re getting to the time of year where the heat
poses a threat to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration, not
just those sensitive to heat, so be sure to take proper precautions.

As we get into the second half of the week, ensemble guidance
continues to show a shortwave trough coming in off the Pacific and
dismantling the ridge. While this occurs, temperatures drop to
seasonable values and southwest winds increase. At the moment,
generally expecting widespread gusts of 25-35 mph, which may cause
some boating impacts and raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds will continue through the forecast
period, with an expected lull from mid-morning through early
afternoon when winds become light and variable. Overnight, winds
will remain under 10KT, through elevated and at least
intermittently gusty winds will return from afternoon through late
evening. Gusts up to around 20KT are expected, with gusts
diminishing overnight. VFR conditions will continue, with no
operationally significant cloud cover expected as clouds remain at
or above 12kft. Temperatures will exceed 100F between 17Z-05Z,
reaching a high of 109F.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Southerly to
southwesterly winds will generally be the rule the next 24 hours,
with wind speeds around 5-10KT tonight, becoming elevated and
gusty once again Tuesday afternoon through the evening. Gusts to
around 20KT are expected, with stronger westerly winds expected
across the western Mojave/KDAG where gusts will reach around 25KT,
and similar southwesterly gusts at KEED in the Colorado River
Valley through early evening. Another exception will be KBIH in
the northern Owens Valley, where winds generally follow diurnal
patterns, with speeds around 10KT or less through the forecast
period. Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early
evening, mainly across portions of southeastern California and
northwestern Arizona, with gusty outflow winds not expected to
impact area terminals. VFR conditions continue with FEW-SCT clouds
at or above 12kft during the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office