760
FXUS66 KLOX 012106
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
206 PM PDT Fri May 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/103 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail through
at least Saturday. A cooling trend will begin Sunday and there is
a chance of drizzle or light rain showers late Sunday into
Monday. Dry and warmer conditions can be expected starting next
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...01/142 PM.

A 2500 foot marine layer was slow to clear today and temperatures
have struggled to catch up to yesterday across coast and valleys.
Otherwise, another low impact weather day across the area with
temps within a few degrees of normal in most areas except for the
far interior areas.

Saturday is shaping up to be almost a carbon copy of today, with
the possible exception some increased winds across the interior
due to a 1-2mb increase in onshore flow. Otherwise temperatures
should be about the same after a similar marine layer coverage
and subsequent burn off.

Sunday is still slated to be the beginning of a 3 day cooling
trend, the bulk of which will take place Sunday as a slow moving
cut off low moves south along the California coast. Given the
predicted track of the low it`s unlikely any rain will fall before
Monday but if there is some precip Sunday it would be along the
Central Coast and very light.

By Monday most of the models are showing the upper low centered
between Monterey and San Luis Obispo with still very little
moisture (PW`s around 0.6"). Between that and also very minimal
dynamics aloft any rain or drizzle that falls will be very light,
and could be just be from an enhanced marine layer interacting
with the coastal topography. Temperatures will top out in the 60s,
6-12 degrees below normal inland and 2-4 below normal for the
coast.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...01/205 PM.

Cool conditions will continue into at least Tuesday as models are
indicating the upper low finally getting nudged east. Although
most of the ensemble solutions slightly favor Monday as the "best"
chance of any precip, Tuesday may actually have a higher chance
due to higher moisture content (increasing to 0.8") and slightly
better instability with low passing overhead. This isn`t really
reflected in the current forecast mainly due to lots of
uncertainty with the precise track of the low, but certainly can`t
rule out some scattered light showers Tuesday.

A weak high pressure ridge is expected to move over the West
coast by later Wednesday and last more or less into next weekend
with warming temperatures, possibly getting close to 90 in the
warmer valleys by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...01/2007Z.

At 1919Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 3600 ft with a temperature of 20 C.

High confidence in CAVU conditions for KWJF and KPMD.

For coastal and valley sites, moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing
of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts, and may be off by 1 flight category at times.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts, and there is a
30% chance of cigs as low as OVC006 between 8Z-15Z Sat. No
significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts, and there is a
20% chance of cigs as low as OVC004 between 10Z-16Z Sat.

&&

.MARINE...01/807 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will occur across the most
northwestern portion into tonight. Otherwise through Tuesday,
winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Sunday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels. For Tuesday and Wednesday,
winds and seas are expected to continue to remain below SCA
levels, but there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office