707
FXUS66 KLOX 171953
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1253 PM PDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/230 AM.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected this week, peaking
Wednesday through Friday. There is a HIGH risk for heat illness
this week, with conditions remaining warm overnight adding to the
heat risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...17/859 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes to the forecast expected today. Just extremely hot this
week with temperature anomalies in the 30-35 degree range. Heat
advisories and extreme heat warnings in effect through Friday.
Cooler next week but still 5-15 degrees above normal.

***From Previous Discussion***

***DANGEROUS LONG TERM AND RECORD BREAKING HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK,
 PEAKING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY***

There will be a high risk for heat illness for just about everyone
this week - especially locations away from the coast. Locate
where the nearest cooling center is near you, make sure to consume
plenty of hydrating liquids nearby to consume through the week,
and check in on neighbors and loved ones. Stay inside air-
conditioned rooms if possible, and avoid going outside or working
outdoors, especially between the hours of 10am and 5pm. NEVER
leave any person or pet inside a car without air conditioning, as
temperatures inside a car without adequate cooling can turn deadly
within minutes. Know the signs of heat illness, heat stroke, and
heat exhaustion.

As for the weather, models continue to agree on the record level
heat this week due to very strong upper level high pressure
continuing to strengthen to 594-596 dam and slowly crawl eastward
through the region. Not only will the the areas away from the
coast warm up this week, but light offshore flow will allow the
coasts to warm up as well. Heat advisories and Extreme warnings
are in place for the majority of areas (except the Antelope Valley
and northern Ventura County mountains, which climatologically
tend to be on the warmer side). High temperatures this week will
will climb into the mid 90s to low 100s today through Friday, with
minimal day to day changes (20-35 degrees above normal). As for
the immediate coasts, high temperatures will reach the 80s to 90s.
These temperatures at the coasts could be a little different each
day depending on if the offshore flow is strong enough to keep
the seabreeze at bay. Wednesday, temperatures at the coast may be
towards the lower end of the range due to current pressure
gradient projections turning onshore, which could additionally
cause some of the coastal valleys to be a few degrees cooler than
forecast if the seabreeze ends up being stronger than models
suggest.

On top of all that, overnight lows, especially in the lower
mountain areas below 4000 feet such as the Santa Monica mountains,
the Santa Ynez Range, the Santa Lucias, and the lower San Gabriel
mountains, will not drop below the mid 70s to mid 80s. This will
significantly limit the amount of overnight relief in those
areas. Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s which will
provide at least a few hours of relief from the heat.

As for records, not only are daily temperature records likely to
be broken across the region, but even the high temperature records
for any day in the entire month of March. Not every location will
break records each day, nor their monthly march records, but the
majority of locations may do so.

Not only will there be record temperatures at the surface, based
on RAOB sounding climatology at SPC, temperatures at 700mb (roughly
10,000 feet) will be higher than ever before measured in March
over southern California.

Record highs for Downtown LA this week are as follows:

Today: 94 in 1914
Wednesday: 87 in 1997
Thursday: 97 in 1997
Friday: 93 in 1997

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...17/318 AM.

Little or no change in the pattern Friday with all advisories and
warnings remaining in effect.

Saturday and Sunday, models suggest that the high pressure will
start to flatten out resulting in zonal flow (west to east), and
temperatures will finally start to decrease again. For Saturday,
there is a 50% chance that some heat products will need to
extended through the evening hours, mainly inland and away from
the beaches. However by Sunday, things should cool down rather
noticeably. Therefore, no heat products are anticipated.
Additionally, the marine layer low clouds and fog may return to
coastal areas each night as early as Friday night, and more
widespread Saturday night.

As for rain chances, deterministic models (and their respective
ensembles) indicate some possibility of light showers after the
25th. Though the current run of the deterministic EC is extremely
light, if any, and the GFS shows the front breaking up by Point
Conception and not reaching areas south of Point Conception (and
still very light). However, no significant storms are indicated
for Southern California through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...17/1953Z.

Around 19Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 600 feet with a temperature
near 30 degrees Celsius.

VFR conditions are expected through the period except for a 10-20
chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions 08-17Z for immediate coastal
TAFs KSBA to KLGB including KLAX.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period except a 20
percent chance of VLIFR to LIFR conditions 10-17Z.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...17/1243 PM.

High confidence in the current forecast through Thursday night,
then moderate confidence thereafter.

Winds will very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels through at least Thursday night. There is a moderate (30-40
percent) chance of SCA level winds each evening across the far
northwestern portion of the coastal waters on Thursday evening and
Friday evening.

For the waters southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands
and the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is a
moderate-to-high (30-50 percent) chance of SCA level conditions
developing over the weekend with a low (15-20 percent) chance of
GALES.

Dense fog is possible each night and morning as a shallow marine
inversion may linger over the coastal waters through the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for zones
      38-87-340-341-343-344-346>350-354-355-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 87-340-341-346>350-354-355-362-366-367-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Friday for
      zones 88-342-345-351>353-356>358-368>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday evening
      for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Hall/RM
SYNOPSIS...MW/KL/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office