411
FXUS66 KLOX 160555
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1055 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/816 PM.

Seasonal June conditions will continue, with a stronger onshore
flow developing late week into this weekend that will be capable
of pushing night through morning low clouds and fog further
inland. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue
through Tuesday, with minor afternoon heat impacts, before cooling
down during the second half of this week into this weekend. There
is then increasing confidence of more impactful heat building
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...15/835 PM.

***UPDATE***

The weather pattern continues to be dictated by a weak upper level
pattern and onshore flow with reoccurring marine layer clouds
with patchy fog each night. There has been a decrease in the
coverage of clouds and earlier clearing times for Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, and will likely see something similar tomorrow
as onshore flow trends a bit weaker. However, expecting westerly
winds to strengthen by Tuesday afternoon, through Thursday. This
will lead to an increase in gusty winds over the Antelope Valley
and interior San Luis Obispo each afternoon and evening. Current
thinking is these winds will remain below sub-advisory levels
through Wednesday, but gusts will approach 45 mph around Thursday.

Current forecast looked on track mostly, however rain chances were
changed to drizzle for the coastal waters and areas north of Point
Conception as the trough moves through.

***From Previous Discussion***

The area remains under very weak synoptic flow in between two high
pressure circulations, one to the southeast over northern Mexico
and the other to the northwest over the eastern Pacific, off the
OR and NorCal coast. Overall heights have increased slightly over
the area and the marine layer deepened slightly over the last 24
hours. This change should yield afternoon temperatures today and
Tuesday similar to yesterday to a few degrees warmer. Although,
temperature readings at midday were reading a few degrees cooler
compared to midday yesterday for most coastal areas, with the
exception of warmer readings across Ventura County and Northern
LA County. Overall, temperatures today and Tuesday should run up
to 5-10 degrees above normal for most areas. The marine layer
will continue to protect coastal areas from the heat with highs
only in the 70s to near 80, including inland coastal sections of
LA County, and 90s to 100 for the inland and interior valley
areas.

Afternoon temperatures today and Tuesday, combined with continued
higher humidity (RH>55) and sunny skies will lead to widespread
minor and locally moderate heat impacts for the hotter inland
areas, including areas like the San Fernando Valley. So, heat
stress will be an impact in the afternoons. Good cooling trends
in the evening and especially overnight should limit overall
impacts. However, those sensitive to the heat may want to consider
avoiding peak heat of the day, hydrate often, and take breaks from
outdoor activities to find cooler shaded areas or AC.

Through Tuesday ridging and offshore trends will likely lead to
earlier burn off of low clouds and fog, except for possibly some
west facing beaches of Los Angeles and Ventura County. Low clouds
will struggle to penetrate into coastal valleys and fog may
become more common where low clouds do occur albeit with limited
concern for dense fog given continued onshore flow and only weak
ridging/height rises aloft.

A slow-developing trough offshore over the East Pacific will begin
building into the region by Thursday, and will initiate moderate
cooling trends away from the coast, reducing heat risk even to
warmer interior areas. Although the trough pushes more into the
region late-week, initial cooling is expected to begin Wednesday.
Night-to-morning low clouds may begin to expand further into the
coastal valleys by Wednesday morning as model guidance shows
strengthening onshore flow heading into the second half of the
week.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/130 PM.

Friday into this weekend, the coastal trough will continue to
produce deep westerly to southwesterly flow over much of CA and
carry the cooling trend through at least the start of the weekend,
with the most notable cooling away from the coast. This will
significantly reduce heat risk even to warmer interior areas and
latest guidance has afternoon high temperatures up to 5-10 degrees
below normal Friday through the weekend. Night-to-morning low
clouds will likely continue to push further into the coastal
valleys and possibly some lower foothills through the start of the
weekend. There will also be increased odds for some drizzle
within the marine layer each morning.

With the stronger onshore push late-week into this week, this
will support gusty onshore to northwest winds nearing advisory
levels for the interior, possibly extending to southwest Santa
Barbara. Strongest winds will be across the Antelope Valley, with
guidance showing winds peaking Friday near advisory criteria.
There may be a period of enhanced fire weather concern on one or
both of those transition days for far interior areas and maybe
especially at high elevations, which would be situated above the
expanding marine layer influence.

Looking further out, there is increasing confidence of a more
significant warming trend beginning early next week and peaking
toward the middle of the week with strong high pressure developing
across much of the southwest CONUS. Temperatures are forecast to
warm back to around the level they are now beginning around
Tuesday and then warm further beyond Tuesday, witch will increase
the heat risk and bring potential heat alerts to many inland
valleys and basins.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0550Z.

At 0512Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2300 ft with a temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in KPMD & KWJF.

Fair confidence in TAF for KPRB with a 20 percent chc of IFR
cig/vis 12Z-16Z.

Low confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY with 40 percent chc of
IFR cig/vis 11Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Cigs may be off by +/- 300
ft and VFR transition could be 1 hour early or up to 2 hours late.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc that
cigs will remain AOA 010. VFR conds could arrive as early as 17Z
or as late a 20Z. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance for 2SM OVC006
conds 11Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...15/810 PM.

Moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Conditions are
generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels across the coastal waters through the forecast period.
However, winds may approach SCA levels with gusts 20 to 25 knots
over portions of the waters at times, mainly Tuesday near and
south of Point Conception and into the western Santa Barbara
Channel.

&&

.BEACHES...15/811 PM.

A couple of long period southerly swells (14 seconds and 18
seconds) will continue to affect the coastal waters through at
least Wednesday. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through
Wednesday evening due to elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet on south-
facing beaches of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast, Los
Angeles County Beaches, and portions of the Southern Santa Barbara
County Beaches.

Evening tides of 7.2 to 7.7 ft are predicted through Tuesday night.
The combination of the unusually high tides with elevated surf
could result in minor to locally moderate coastal flooding along
south exposed coasts, especially near Malibu and Long Beach. In
addition, there is along potential for sneaker waves. Stay tuned
for updates and refer to CFWLOX for additional details.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday
      night for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/SB
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Batz/CC
BEACHES...Batz/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...SB/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office