965
FXUS66 KLOX 131043
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
243 AM PST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/219 AM.

Dense fog will continue along the coasts through late this morning
and possibly into Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures today, then
warming Sunday through Tuesday before a cooling trend occurs in
the latter half of next week. The next chance of widespread rain
is during the week of Christmas, with a low chance for light rain
next weekend for northern portions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...13/241 AM.

The main focus in the short term is another warm up across
Southwest California, as well as the ongoing dense fog impacting
virtually all coasts and some inland coastal areas across the Los
Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo counties. A
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10am this morning. Fog
is expected to continue through the morning hours, then
visibilities are expected to improve some by late morning. Another
round of dense fog is forecast to return this evening and
continue into Sunday morning for similar areas. Foggy conditions
may prevail across the immediate coasts into Sunday Monday.

The upper level ridge that has been driving the overall warm
period will continue to weaken slightly through Sunday morning
before weakly strengthening starting Sunday afternoon, thus high
temperatures will slightly decrease today and increase a couple
degrees across coasts and valleys Sunday. Today and Sunday will
feature highs in the 60s near the coasts and 70s across most
inland areas. Some of the warmer valleys in Los Angeles and
Ventura County will reach the low to mid 80s.

Monday will feature a further warm up across all coasts and
valleys as the ridge of high pressure intensifies and offshore
flow to the north and to the east increases. Offshore flow is
forecast to remain a bit weaker than this past week, thus no wind
advisories are anticipated at this time. Most coastal areas will
be well into the 70s while valleys and inland areas will be well
into the 80s. Woodland Hills, typically our warmest area in this
regime, may even touch 90 degrees, which would smash the current
record of 85 degrees. Its safe to say the warm December will
continue with coasts 5-10 degrees above normal and inland areas
10-20 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...13/241 AM.

The warm and dry conditions continue Tuesday with little change
in actual high temperatures, but overnight lows will be warmer as
the offshore flow from the north and east continue. Offshore flow
from the east will weaken through Tuesday, but the northerly
gradients will remain fairly similar Tuesday through Thursday.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the week, but some
slight cooling is on the way Wednesday through Friday. Most of
the forecast areas will see highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s by
Friday.

A return of December dense fog at the coasts is possible
Wednesday through Friday.

Rain is on the horizon, but likely not until next weekend at the
earliest. The latest CPC 8-14 day precipitation outlook is showing
likely above normal precipitation across the region. Almost all
members of the ensembles of the GFS, EC, and EC-AI are indicating
rain at some point from next weekend through a couple days after
Christmas. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty in the timing
of rain and the rain totals, but there is considerable agreement
that there will be some rain during that period. The GFS ensemble
has a few solutions that show rain as early as Saturday afternoon
for SLO County, but this is certainly the outlier compared to the
remainder of the solutions across models. The current sweet spot
with the most number of solutions favoring rain appears to be
from the 22nd through the 26th, so Santa Claus may need to break
out the rain coat when he visits SoCal.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1036Z.

At 1030Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2800 feet with a temperatures of 21 degrees
Celsius.

For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in valley and desert TAFs. As
for coastal sites, moderate confidence due to uncertainties in the
behavior of the marine layer, especially timing of flight category
changes which could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts. There is a 30%
chance of VV001 with 1/4sm FG 12Z-16Z. No significant easterly
wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of MVFR
VSBYs 12Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...13/231 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday
through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds,
especially from Point Conception southward.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On
Wednesday, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect much of
the coastal waters today through Sunday. The best chances for
dense fog will be from the overnight through morning hours with
scattered pockets likely through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this
      morning for zones
      340-341-346-347-349-350-354-355-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for
      zones 368-373-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewis
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office