997
FXUS65 KPSR 130907
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
207 AM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will prevail across the entire
  region through next week.

- Record setting highs and warm lows will be possible across the
  lower deserts including Phoenix through Monday.

- Dry and tranquil weather will continue through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale ridging remains planted over the Southwestern U.S. and
this will not change for at least a week. Dry conditions will
continue to prevail with only periods of higher level clouds
passing through the region. In fact, a batch of high clouds are
currently moving through ahead of a very weak cyclonic circulation
off the southern California coast. Other than the clouds, the
disturbance will have no impact on our weather this weekend as H5
heights will barely budge from the 582-584dm heights we have seen
over the past couple of days. Heights aloft will remain above the
90th percentile of climatology keeping daytime highs anywhere
from 10 to 15 degrees above normal through at least Monday, or
mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower deserts.
Daily record highs will also be in jeopardy, especially for
Phoenix as record highs are 82, 78, and 79 degrees today through
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Very little will change as far as the weather pattern is expected
for next week with the large scale ridging remaining the dominant
feature. The very weak disturbance currently off the southern
California coast will eventually cut through the ridge later
Monday and Monday night, likely knocking temperatures down a
degree or two for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. However, the
ridge will quickly rebuild to our west and is forecast to shift
back into our region by Wednesday. We should maintain H5 heights
of 580-584dm over our region through the rest of next week with
dry westerly flow persisting under clear to mostly clear skies.
Depending on the strength of the ridge later next week, we may
again see highs topping 80 degrees in some spots later next week
into next weekend. Long range guidance is still pointing toward a
potential pattern shift by around Christmas which may bring a
larger trough farther to the south along the West Coast. If this
occurs, it could bring an end to our unseasonably warm and dry
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0830Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through Sunday morning
under FEW-SCT high cirrus decks. Light winds (generally AOB 7 kts)
will follow a familiar diurnal pattern, with extended periods of
variability to nearly calm conditions, especially during diurnal
transitions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to bring unseasonably
warm and dry conditions to the region well into next week. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s will be common
across the lower deserts, or around 10 to 15 degrees above daily
normals. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal trends with
occasional afternoon breeziness across the AZ high terrain. Daily
MinRHs will range between 20-25% while overnight recoveries run
generally between 45-75%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/13   82 (2010)
12/14   78 (2010)
12/15   79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office