393
FXUS65 KPSR 282301
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming will continue the remainder of the week with lower
elevation temperatures reaching near 80 degrees by the weekend.

- Low pressure will slide through the Intermountain West generating
breezy conditions for high terrain areas and the Lower Colorado
River Valley.

- High pressure will be the dominant feature over the region
through at least the beginning of next week resulting in persistent
dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Afternoon 500mb analysis reveals a minor disruption in the longwave
ridging pattern over the western CONUS as an embedded disturbance
traverses the Intermountain West. A second, much broader, but weak,
area of low pressure currently sits over the Eastern Pacific and is
throwing some lofted moisture over the Desert Southwest, resulting
in a constant stream of high-level cirrus and stratus. Other than
the cloud cover, these waves will have minimal impact on conditions
today as the dominant area of high pressure remains the main weather
influence. Heights aloft will continue to trend upwards as will
regional temperatures in response. Lower desert highs this afternoon
will hover in the lower to middle 70s.

The previously-mentioned continental trough will quickly migrate
eastward over the Plains during the next 24 hours. As it passes to
the north and east, our regional pressure gradient will tighten,
helping to generate breezy to locally windy conditions Thursday. The
strongest winds will be focused over higher terrain areas to the
east of the Phoenix metro and parts of the Lower Colorado River
Valley where gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appear likely. Advisory
level gusts cannot be completely ruled out, but should be limited to
the highest ridge tops. Therefore, no wind products will be issued
at this time.

For the back half of the week, the broader ridging regime will be
clear of any other minor disturbances and will become fully
reestablished over the western CONUS. After a brief pause in day-to-
day temperature increases, regional values will resume their uptrend
for the end of the workweek. Middle 70s will be common Thursday
afternoon before upper 70s, and even a few spots reaching 80
degrees, enter the picture for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in excellent agreement that the overall ridge axis
over the west coast will move eastward over the weekend, with 500 mb
height fields rising above 580dm across the region. This will
translate to afternoon high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday
flirting with 80 degrees across most of the lower desert
communities, which would be a good 8-10 degrees above normal.
Heading into early next week, the ridge axis will shift eastward and
be replaced by a shortwave trough. This overall change will likely
result in slightly cooler temperatures as afternoon highs retreat
into the mid to upper 70s along with dry and tranquil continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather issues will exist through Thursday evening under
periods of thicker cirrus cigs eventually clearing late in the
period. Winds will behave similarly to the past 24 hours with
instances of wide variability and nearly calm conditions at times.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather concerns will exist through Thursday evening under
occasionally thick cirrus decks gradually clearing through the
period. Winds will generally oscillate between a west and north
component with speeds generally increasing Thursday afternoon.
Northerly gusts 20-25kt should materialize at KBLH by early
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through the
next several days. Afternoon MinRHs through the end of the week with
range between 10-20%, rising slightly to between 15-25% over the
weekend. Overnight recoveries will range between 25-60%. Other than
some enhanced breeziness through early this afternoon across the
higher ridge tops of south-central AZ, winds everywhere else will
remain generally light and diurnal. Another round of additional
breeziness is expected Thursday and Friday across the Lower Colorado
River Valley and the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix with
periodic gusts in excess of 20-25 mph, with lighter wind speeds
elsewhere.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office