133
FXUS66 KSGX 011852
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1152 AM PDT Fri May 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region will bring warmer weather
with highs up to 10 degrees above normal. The marine layer will
continue to bring low clouds each night and morning across parts
of the coastal basin for the foreseeable future. An area of low
pressure will move near the area Sunday through Tuesday. This will
bring cooler and breezier weather by Sunday, with the chance of
light rain showers by Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather with a
warming trend is expected for the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Low clouds will continue to clear most areas, though some will
linger near the beaches through the afternoon as a deep marine
layer is in place. High temperatures will be warmer than yesterday
as the area of low pressure impacting the region has moved to the
east and a weak area of high pressure has made its way over our
area. Highs will reach into the 70s/80s this afternoon for inland
valleys and the high desert. Temperatures will not change too much
into tomorrow as the high slowly slides eastward.

A closed low will move near California by Sunday. This will bring
cooling to inland areas up to 10 degrees along with windier
conditions across the mountains and deserts. Confidence is
moderate to high in seeing wind gusts 35 mph or more Sunday
afternoon and evening across the desert slopes into the deserts.
As the low draws closer, the marine layer will continue to deepen.
This may lead to some drizzle / light showers across western San
Diego County. Though PWAT values increase slightly, the system
does not look to have much moisture. The best chance of light
rainfall will be Monday evening into Tuesday morning for places
along and west of the mountains. Areas of San Diego County have
the best chance to see rainfall, especially along the coastal
slopes. Whatever (if any) falls will be light. The coolest
temperatures of the week will occur as this system passes through
the region on Monday and Tuesday with highs 5 to 15 degrees below
normal. Big Bear has around a 25-40% chance of reaching 50
degrees, Julian a 60-70% each day. Highs in the 60s will prevail
for areas west of the mountains with 70s to near 80 degrees across
the lower deserts.

Ensemble models are in fair agreement of this low moving out of
the region by Wednesday, where a ridge will take its place. This
will bring drier and warmer weather to the region. Inland valleys
are expected to warm about 7-12 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday.
This may occur again by next Thursday as the area of high pressure
expands later into the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
010915Z....Coast/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases 1500-2500
ft MSL have reached inland areas up to mountain foothills,
continuing to expand through the coastal basin (including much of
the Inland Empire). Maximum cloud coverage 12-15z before scattering
out to coastal areas by 18z and mostly scattering out at the coast
by 20z (areas of SCT-BKN clouds could linger in parts through the
afternoon). Low clouds with lower bases, 1000-2000 ft MSL, redevelop
after 02z, slowly filling into SD County and Orange County inland
valleys through 09z Sat before starting to reach into western parts
of the Inland Empire, lowering vis 2-6SM. Vis also reduced where
clouds meet terrain.

.Mountains/Deserts...Areas of elevated westerly winds 20-30 kts,
with gusts to 35 kts through mountain passes and into adjacent
deserts Friday evening, weakening after 07z Sat. Areas of
up/downdrafts and isolated LLWS in lee of mountains. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow this afternoon and evening with gusts
approaching 20 kts near San Clemente Island. No hazardous marine
conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office