433
FXUS66 KSGX 291943
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1243 PM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudier and cooler weather will continue into the weekend. A
weather system will move into the area, bringing the chance of
widespread rainfall this weekend, heaviest of which will occur late
Saturday into Sunday morning. Slightly warmer and drier weather
is expected by Monday into at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A low pressure system currently off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest will lead to a greater troughing pattern over the West
Coast into the weekend. Today will be dry with scattered clouds and
temperatures near to slightly below average. As the low pressure
system moves southward, an open wave trough will begin to form
bringing in greater moisture from the southwest. PWAT values rise
near one inch at San Diego. The marine layer will slowly become
saturated tonight into Saturday, where hi-res models continue to
show areas of light showers from the coastal slopes of the mountains
to the coast. Since these seem to be isolated in nature, the
forecast shows around 15-25% chance of rain for these areas
Thursday night through Friday night.

A large area of moisture in the form of a subtropical low pressure
system that we continue to monitor is slowly forming well off the
coast. Models are beginning to agree on a more southerly track
with the main swath of the heaviest rains going into Baja
California, where IVT values near 300 kg/m/s (weaker values) for
SoCal. Nonetheless, bouts of moderate to heavier rain are
expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. With the model
guidance of a more southerly track of the system, confidence
remains high on San Diego County seeing the most precipitation
overall, as well as all coastal mountain slopes. Confidence is not
as high on rain totals further north, where there is a larger
model spread. PWAT will peak near 1.5 inches in San Diego, as the
subtropical low and low to the north pass through, so sufficient
moisture will be in place.

The interactions between the subtropical low and the low pressure
system to the north is still somewhat uncertain, where exact rain
totals are still in question. Chances for 1 inch of rain in total
over the weekend has stayed pretty consistent across San Diego
County (50-60%), closer to 75% in the mountains. These chances
decrease across the LA basin near 35-45%. Chances for one half
inch in this area increases to 55-65%, 35-50% chance across desert
regions. Some heavier bands of showers may occur over San Diego
county closer to the core of the subtropical low, which may bring
greater amounts locally. In terms of timing, light to moderate
showers will push in from west to east sometime on Saturday
afternoon into the evening. The period for the heaviest rainfall
will be later on Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Rainfall will become more scattered about late Sunday morning
through early evening, with peaks of sunshine starting to make a
return in parts of the deserts and western LA basin as the system
moves eastward.

Dry and sunnier weather is expected by Monday as weak high pressure
moves over the area. This will bring a subtle warming trend, though
keeping temperatures near normal readings for early November. This
weather looks to continue into at least Wednesday. Another low
pressure system may form somewhere off the California coast into the
latter half of next week. This may bring a slight chance of light
showers near the coast, though most of the region looks to stay
dry for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
291800Z...While clouds scattered out briefly earlier today, BKN-SCT
4000-5000 ft MSL have redeveloped, with much patchier clouds near
2500-3000 ft along the coasts. More BKN low clouds near 3000ft
develop and spread across the basin after 01-03z Friday with VCSH
more along the coastal areas. Areas of -SHRA with CIGs locally down
to 2500 feet MSL expected near the coast after between 08-13z. VCSH
chances decreases by 16-19z Friday with lower clouds become more FEW-
SCT into the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday. As a
storm system moves through the coastal waters this weekend, shifting
winds and seas are likely to increase by Sunday morning, possibly to
hazardous levels, lingering into Monday. There is also a slight
chance of thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Stay
tuned for updates.

&&

.BEACHES...
Today`s high tide has already peaked earlier this morning at 7.64
feet at La Jolla tidal gauge. The Coastal Flood Warning remains in
effect through 1 PM this afternoon to due lingering minor coastal
flooding concerns following the high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory
will replace the warning at 1 PM, in effect until 2 PM Friday.
Friday`s high tide is expected to peak around 7.25 feet near noon
Friday which could produce minor coastal flooding as surf is
expected to be around 3-5 feet.

The southwesterly swell (3 ft at 15 seconds from 200 degrees)
responsible for the marginally elevated surf through the weekend
will persist into Monday. As a storm system moves into the area for
Sunday/Monday, increased winds could help bolster localized wave
sets to 6 feet. While high tides will continue to wane into the
weekend, tides will remain over 6 feet which could still lead to
minor tidal overflow if breaking waves near 4-6 feet.

Reported forecast tides have been corrected up by 1.4-1.6ft based on
recent trends in tidal observations.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The water temperature at Scripps Pier on Wednesday was another
record warm temperature for the date at 73.6 F, 10 degrees above
the long-term average for the date. Water temperatures at Scripps
Pier have largely plateaued for the past month, though were a
little cooler for the middle of October, at a time of year when
water temperatures would normally be declining. Hence, the recent
stretch of new daily record warm water temperatures day after day
after day. The ensemble mean of the ECMWF seasonal forecast from
October was for water temperatures along the southern California
coast to average 10 degrees F above normal for December through
February.

The water level at San Diego during the peak of the highest high
tide on Wednesday was the third highest on record for San Diego.
The highest water level for today is expected to be around 0.28
feet lower than on Wednesday, which would place it as the 8th
highest water level recorded at San Diego. This recent 5-day
stretch from Sunday through Thursday of this week will likely
include 5 of the 10 highest water levels ever recorded at
San Diego.

The record high water levels of this week have been the result
of the combination of higher astronomical high tides during
the full moon combined with sea levels that are around 17 inches
higher than a year ago as a result of thermal expansion of
the record warm water from the strengthening El Nino.

Highest water levels at San Diego:

1)  Oct 27, 2026:  2.80 feet MHHW (8.52 feet MLLW)
2)  Oct 26, 2026:  2.72 feet MHHW (8.44 feet MLLW)
3)  Oct 28, 2026:  2.71 feet MHHW (8.43 feet MLLW)
4t) Jul 14, 2026:  2.54 feet MHHW (8.26 feet MLLW)
4t) Nov 25, 2015:  2.54 feet MHHW (8.26 feet MLLW)
6)  Aug 02, 2023:  2.53 feet MHHW (8.25 feet MLLW)
7)  Dec 13, 2012:  2.45 feet MHHW (8.17 feet MLLW)
8)  Oct 25, 2026:  2.40 feet MHHW (8.12 feet MLLW)

Water levels will likely be at least a few inches
higher during king tides the week of Thanksgiving and the
week of Christmas.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PDT Friday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office