706
FXUS65 KPSR 261115
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 AM MST Sun Oct 26 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through this coming week
with temperatures near to above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Objective analysis and water vapor imagery early this morning show
quasi-zonal flow over much of Arizona, with a closed low pressure
system in the south-central Plains, and a sub-tropical high over
central Mexico and the southern Baja. Models are in excellent
agreement that this quasi-zonal flow will hold over our region
through tomorrow. This will lead to dry and tranquil weather
conditions continuing across the region. Additionally, temperatures
will remain largely unchanged and be around 2-4 degrees above their
daily normals for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
As we move towards the middle of this week, the aforementioned
subtropical ridge will start to push into Arizona. This will cause
H5 heights aloft to rise to around 588-590 dm Tuesday and Wednesday,
which in turn will lead to warming temperatures. Afternoon high
temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 90s across the lower
deserts and in the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain Tuesday-
Thursday. Models show H5 heights maxing out on Wednesday, making
Wednesday forecasted to be the hottest day of the week. These mid-
week temperatures are forecasted to be around 5-8 degrees above
normal, but 4-5 degrees shy of record levels. By the end of the week
the models show a weak shortwave trough moving into our region. This
weak shortwave looks to lower heights aloft, with H5 heights falling
to around 582-585 dm, resulting in a slight cooling trend of a
couple degrees. Temperatures are forecasted to fall back into the
mid to upper 80s to near 90 across the lower deserts and in the
low to mid 80s across the higher terrain to end the workweek and
continue through next weekend. Forecast confidence does start to
go down next weekend as the GEFS shows high pressure trying to
build back in which would result in warming temperatures. Either
way, dry conditions look to continue for at least the next 10
days.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Winds will continue to follow their typical diurnal tendencies
with speeds remaining aob 8 kts, at most terminals. Expect
extended periods of light and variable to calm winds at times,
particularly before diurnal wind shifts. At KBLH, winds this
afternoon will be southerly with speeds around 10 kt, with some
occasional gusts into the mid to upper teens possible. Otherwise,
winds will be light and variable at KBLH. FEW to SCT high clouds
will overspread the region this morning and afternoon and then
clear out tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain largely unchanged today and tomorrow,
with a slight warming trend during the middle of the week.
Temperatures then look to cool a few degrees by the end of the
workweek and heading into next weekend. Either way temperatures
look to be 4-8 degrees above normal through the week, maxing out
on Wednesday. MinRHs today and tomorrow will be around 20% for the
lower deserts to around 25% over the higher terrain areas. Then
on Tuesday through the remainder of the week minRHs fall to 10-15%
for the lower deserts to around 20% for the higher terrain areas.
Winds, over the next week, will generally follow their typical
diurnal tendencies with limited afternoon upslope gustiness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich

NWS Phoenix Office