018
FXUS66 KLOX 261301
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
601 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...25/547 PM.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with
warming expected starting Monday through the end of next week.
The warmest conditions are likely on Wednesday. Gusty northwest
to north winds will develop through Monday, peaking Sunday, then
turning northeast Tuesday through Thursday. No significant rain
chances in the foreseeable future.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...26/218 AM.

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, trough will sweep across the West
Coast today then a ridge will build over the area Monday and
Tuesday. Near the surface, northerly offshore gradients will
increase across the area today through Monday with northeast
offshore gradients increasing on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise, main issue in the short term will be the winds. The
passage of the remnants of a weak front will tighten up the
northerly offshore gradients today through Monday. Based on high
resolution models, northerly gradients (SBA-SMX, SBA-BFL and
LAX-BFL) will peak in the -3.5 to -6.0 mb range. So, north winds
will impact the entire Santa Ynez Range, the I-5 Corridor and the
western Antelope Valley Foothills. With morning package, have
extended the WIND ADVISORIES for the western Santa Ynez Range
through 600 AM Monday and issued WIND ADVISORIES for the eastern
Santa Ynez Range, the I-5 Corridor and the western foothills of
the Antelope Valley from 500 PM this afternoon through 600 AM
Monday. Wind gusts of 35 to 55 MPH can be expected with even some
isolated gusts of 60+ MPH across the I-5 Corridor and western
Santa Ynez Range. By Monday night and Tuesday, the northerly
gradients will subside, but the northeasterly offshore gradients
will increase. Current high resolution models indicate the
LAX-DAG gradient peaking near -6.5 mb and the SMX-BFL gradient
peaking around -4.5 mb Tuesday morning. Along with this offshore
gradients, northeasterly winds around 35 knots are forecast
Tuesday morning. So, there will definitely be some gusty Santa Ana
winds across the usual spots of Ventura/LA counties as well as
across the Santa Lucia Range in SLO county. Based on the latest
ensembles, there is a 40-50% chance of advisory-level winds in
these areas on Tuesday. So, this will need to be watched closely.

Other than the wind, no significant issues are expected through
the short term period. Stratus/dense fog is impacting the
Central Coast, Santa Ynez Valley and interior sections of SLO
county early this morning. So, a DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been
issued for these areas until 900 AM. Stratus should dissipate by
late this morning with sunny skies all areas this afternoon.
Stratus will be much less extensive tonight/Monday and non-
existent Monday night/Tuesday morning as offshore flow increases.

As for temperatures, will expect a noticeable warming trend
through Tuesday with building upper level ridge and offshore
pressure gradients. By Tuesday, most areas will be in the 80s to
mid 90s which is about 6-12 degrees above normal for many areas.
There remains about a 20% chance of HEAT ADVISORIES being needed
for coastal/valley areas of Ventura/LA counties on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...26/218 AM.

For the extended, deterministic models remain on the same
synoptic pattern, indicating continued warm and dry conditions for
the area through Saturday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, upper level ridge gradually weakens
while the offshore surface pressure gradients diminish. So, skies
will remain mostly clear. Offshore winds will continue across the
area, but will weaken on Wednesday and weaken event further on
Thursday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit cooler across
the coastal plain (due to an earlier return of the sea breeze),
but inland areas will warm up a couple degrees with less cold air
advection. On Thursday, all areas will experience a few degrees of
cooling.

For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will once again
strengthen over the area. However, the surface pressure gradients
will exhibit a diurnal pattern. So, there will be some return of
stratus/fog to the coastal plain (mainly across LA county), but
clear skies otherwise. Given the weak gradients, do not anticipate
any wind issues. As for temperatures, near persistence
temperatures are likely on Friday with some warming on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1301Z.

At 1212Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was around 4100 ft with a temperature of 17 deg C.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs due to higher
clouds overhead causing disruptions with the marine layer clouds.
CIGs may bounce categories or scatter and reform frequently due to
higher level clouds. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by
+/- 3 hours, and some sites may be off by one category at any time
when CIGs are forecast. There is a 30% chance of VLIFR conds
until 16Z Sun, and again after 06Z Mon at KSBP, KSMX, and KPRB.
Upon rearrival of CIGs tonight at remainder of TAF sites, conds
may arrive as IFR then lift through the night.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat changes
could be off by +/- 3 hours, and only a few hours of clearing may
occur this afternoon. BKN008 conds may occur upon rearrival
tonight, lifting to BKN012 around 10Z. No significant easterly
wind component is expected.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of
BKN005-008 conds after 08Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...26/142 AM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
and seas are expected through Monday night. The strongest winds
will be focused around Point Conception down to San Nicolas
island. This area has a 25% chance of borderline GALE force NW
wind gusts during the late afternoon through late evening hours
today. From Tuesday through Friday, low-end SCA conditions are
possible mainly 30NM from the shoreline.

Across the inner waters along the Central Coast, SCA level winds
and seas expected across PZZ645 early this afternoon through the
late night hours tonight. Thereafter, winds will shift offshore
(NE) with a 30% chance of SCA level winds, especially across
Morro Bay, Monday night & possibly extending into Tuesday.

Across the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level
winds are likely across the western portion of the Santa Barbara
Channel this afternoon and evening. Monday night and into
Tuesday morning, N-NE Santa Ana winds may impact the nearshore
waters along the Santa Barbara (Monday night), Ventura and Malibu
(Tuesday morning) coastlines, though confidence in low to
moderate at this time. Additionally, there is a small chance that
the NE winds will expand out to Anacapa and Santa Cruz Islands on
Tuesday morning. Elsewhere and otherwise, conditions should
remain below SCA levels through at least mid- week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 340-341. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PDT this
      morning for zones 343-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 6
      AM PDT Monday for zones 352-378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Flagstaff Office